Field notes for
better bets.
Essays and working notes on decision journals, calibration, and betting smarter on product, growth, and strategy. Written the way we run bets: on the record.
Experiment Log: What to Record Before, During and After
Build an experiment log that records your hypothesis, confidence and kill criteria before the result, so you can learn from outcomes instead of rewriting them.
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Architecture Decision Record: How to Write One That Lasts
What an architecture decision record is, what to put in it, a copyable ADR example, and how to keep the habit alive so your team's reasoning stays on the record.
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Postmortem Analysis for Founders: Incidents, Autopsies, and Hindsight
Postmortem analysis helps founders compare incident reviews with forensic autopsies, use templates, and log decisions before hindsight shifts the story.
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Counterfactual Analysis: Five Methods and Bet Logs for Product Teams
Learn how founders and product teams use five counterfactual methods, test pricing with a worked example, and log confidence to separate skill from luck.
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After Action Reviews: Founders Close Bets Before Memory Shifts
Learn how founders run an after action review, ask four questions, capture evidence, and close team bets with decision journals, templates, and follow up.
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Ulysses Contracts: Psychiatric Directives Meet Founder Bet Logs
See how psychiatric advance directives and behavioral economics inform Ulysses contracts, then apply the idea with Betlog decision logs for founders.
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Thinking in Bets Summary: The One Page Bet Template for Teams
Turn Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets into a one page team decision template, with premortems, outcome reviews, and calibration rituals founders can use today.
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Self-Serving Bias: Founders Catch Blame Shifts With a Journal
Self-serving bias makes founders credit wins to skill and losses to luck. See how decision journals and team accountability reveal the pattern.
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Resulting Bias: Outcome Blind Reviews for Founders and Product Leads
Help founders and product leaders resist resulting bias with decision briefs, probability checks, outcome blind reviews, and a Betlog walkthrough.
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Quitting Decision Framework: 8 Steps Teams Can Log Before a Call
Use kill criteria, expected value, and a fixed review date to make quitting decisions auditable. Apply premortems, team templates, and a worked founder...
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Founders: Fix Overconfidence. Make 70% Bets Hit 70% With a Journal
For founders and operators: stop gut bets and build calibration. Use outcome feedback and a decision journal to turn confidence into measurable accuracy.
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Reduce Motivated Reasoning in Teams With One Tracked Bet in 30 Days
Research backed explainer for teams: why motivated reasoning happens and how precommitment, decision journals, and one tracked bet reduce it.
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30 Minutes to Better Bets with Mental Time Travel for Founders
Copyable premortem steps for founders. Timebox a session, log a probability and kill criteria, and keep a locked record to separate luck from skill.
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Decide Faster with Incomplete Information: 5 Steps for Founders
A practical five-step workflow founders and small product teams can use to decide with incomplete information. Includes bias fixes, a worked example, and...
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expected value decision making
Founders: run a 6 step expected value worksheet, check the worst 5–10% outcomes, and log forecasts with Betlog to improve calibration.
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Decision Matrix Template With Swing Weighting and a Decision Journal
Download Excel, Google Sheets, and printable decision matrix templates with swing weighting, sensitivity checks, and decision journal habits to defend...
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6 Tests That Force Disconfirming Evidence for Product Teams
Product teams: use six negative tests, premortems, and a decision journal to surface disconfirming evidence and learn faster from your bets.
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Check If Your 70% Bets Hit 70%: Decision Journal for Founders
A practitioner-first decision journal for founders and product leads. Lock probabilities, run timestamped post-mortems, and use a copy ready template to...
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Two-Way Door Decisions: 5 Questions Founders Use to Move Faster
A founder's guide to two-way door decisions: five quick reversibility questions, rollback tactics, and a decision journal to log bets.
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Founders: One Paragraph Decision Documentation and Copyable ADRs
Turn decisions into repeatable learning with copyable one-paragraph records and ADRs, append-only governance, confidence tracking, and short post-mortems.
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Founders: Write a 2 Minute Decision Brief That Prevents Hindsight Bias
Write a decision brief in 2 minutes. One screen template, probability mapping, pre registered kill criteria, and a worked example from idea to post mortem.
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8 Step Decision Matrix for Founders: Checklists and a Journal Bridge
Practical 8 step decision matrix workflow for founders and small teams. Includes team-ready checklists, stress tests for weights, and a simple bridge to...
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Decision Log Template for Project Managers You Can Copy in 10 Minutes
Copy a project manager's decision log template with schema, worked example, and a 10 min weekly ritual to calibrate bets and track outcomes.
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RAPID Decision Making: 6 Fields, 5–10 Min Bet Journal for Founders
Lean founder playbook for RAPID decision making: six field bet journal in 5–10 minutes, quick premortems, and 30 day to annual calibration.
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90 Minute Decision Gates for Leaders: Kill Soft Greenlights With Decision Logs
Run 90 minute decision gate meetings that stop soft greenlights and record decisions in a timestamped decision log.
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Log Your Next 3 Bets: Six Field Business Wargaming for Founders
Founders: use six field entries and a five stage lifecycle to log bets, sharpen calibration, and view a pricing bet example.
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5 Steps Managers Use to Make Disagree and Commit Verifiable
A manager's five-step method to capture objections, name owners, and enforce real execution. Includes the one-paragraph decision log and a review rhythm...
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Make Evidence Based Decisions: A 7 Field Decision Log for Founders
Use a seven field decision log to make evidence based decisions. Log each bet with a probability and falsification rule, review outcomes, and learn...
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Founders: Decision-Making Frameworks to Route Bets and Log Outcomes
Guide for founders and product leads to route choices with a Decision Type Filter, choose fitting frameworks, and log bets to sharpen judgment.
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Cut Fix Time 60 to 21 Days: Postmortem Questions for Teams via Decision Journals
Use focused postmortem questions plus decision journaling to produce owned, dated action items, tag fixes into your backlog, and shorten repeat‑fix time.
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Founders: 5 Stage Blameless Postmortem to Beat Hindsight Bias
Founders: run a 5 stage blameless postmortem with a ready template, 3–6 week timing, falsification thresholds, and named owners.
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6 Step Decision Journal for Teams to Catch Second Order Effects
Practical workflow for teams to spot downstream consequences: a six step checklist and a decision journal method (Betlog) to log hypotheses and catch...
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Template First Lessons Learned Register That PMs Actually Use
A practical, template-first lessons learned register for pragmatic PMs: ready fields, a facilitation agenda, kickoff reuse checks, and decision-journal...
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Product Teams: 6 Elements of the Decision Quality Framework and DICE
Team guide to the Decision Quality Framework: apply its six elements, add DICE for complex or AI decisions, and operationalize each choice with a decision...
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45 minute Go No Go Decision Meeting: Score, Log Confidence, Learn
Practical playbook for teams running go no go decisions: use a weighted scorecard, silent scoring, and a decision journal to log confidence and learn.
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Stop 'We Knew It' in Teams: 3 Rituals to Beat Hindsight Bias
Stop hindsight bias in your team with three practical rituals: run pre-mortems, log numeric confidences in a decision journal, and perform monthly...
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45–60 Min Premortem for Project Teams: Lock Findings in a Decision Log
Run a 45–60 minute premortem to surface concrete failure scenarios, assign owners, and log findings into a decision record your team will actually use.
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Run a Bet in 5 Stages: Structured Decision Making for Founders
Founder playbook: run a bet in five stages, log six journal fields, and use a 30 and 90 day plan to improve calibration and outcomes.
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Run Bolder Experiments: Guardrail Metrics and NIMs for Product Teams
Run bolder A/B tests without breaking product. Learn to set non inferiority margins, pick 2–4 guardrail metrics, build kill switches, and lock thresholds...
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Preserve Institutional Memory: Log the 'Why' in 2 Minutes for Founders
Learn how founders and small teams preserve institutional memory by capturing the decision 'why' with quick decision journals, 2-minute logs, and simple...
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Founders: Turn Assumption Mapping Workshops Into Decision Journals
Founders: run a 30 to 90 minute assumption mapping workshop, turn top unknowns into precommitted tests, record probability based confidence, and learn...
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9 Field Decision Audit to Stop Rewarding Luck for Founders
Practical, append-only decision audit founders and product leaders can use. Nine fields, meeting cadence, and a worked pricing-bet example to build...
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Board Level Risk Appetite: Short Template and Decision Journal
A governance-first explainer for boards: clear definitions, a short template, KPIs and a 4-item decision journal to make risk appetite operational.
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Make Better Team Decisions: 4 Steps Using Bayesian Updating
A one page walk through Bayesian updating: coin flip update tables, conjugate shortcuts, MCMC notes, and a four step process teams can use to log and...
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Argument Mapping for Founders: 5–10 Minute Decision Logs
Argument mapping for founders and teams: use 5–10 minute decision journal templates, enforce revisit dates, and run quarterly audits to keep judgment sharp.
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30–60 Minutes: Red Team Review With a Decision Journal for Founders
A 30–60 minute red team review for founders: a timed premortem with copyable templates and a decision journal that sets a 4–6 week revisit.
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Founders: Build a 5 Field Decision Rights Matrix in an Afternoon
Founders: Set up a searchable 5 field decision rights matrix in an afternoon. Capture decision, context, owner, and revisit triggers.
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